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Posted by Ray
on 6/12/2008, 6:11 am
72.230.154.40
Saturday: Morning is kaput, IFR only. Should become VFR in the (late?) afternoon, maybe the ridge will be working...but no bets on this.
Sunday: VFR all day, no question. But definitely no XC day, maybe even poor local soaring, depending.....
Details: Both of our models push the cold front through by Saturday afternoon, although they disagree somewhat on when the associated precip will begin (how late on Friday, etc). That will bring some much needed rain, which in turn will result in weak afternoon thermals, although the gradient wind might allow for some ridge soaring. But that is problematic because in order to mix the geostrophic flow down to the surface, thermals are needed, and again the wet ground will mean they will be weak (maybe OK for butterflys). On Sunday, although no precip, the problem will be too much cloudiness. Lingering trough at 500 mb and lower will preclude significant synoptic scale subsidence, which is needed to achieve a balance between the cumuli forming from the weak convection, and the adiabatic compression and warming required to keep them from forming an overcast, thus shutting out the sun and stopping significant further convection (negative feedback loop, common in physiology too). Or, it may "cycle", and if you are lucky you will get towed up at just the right time. So, lots of luck!
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