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Posted by Chuck Zainski on 6/9/2008, 8:33 am, in reply to "Weekend"
64.12.117.202
The weekend was certinly hot. Using Ray's prediction and the BLIP Maps, I concluded it would be a pretty good day with a lot of wind from the west. I assembled the 304 on Saturday for and early start. The Cu's were popping by the time I was ready at 11:30 AM. Ted Timmons towed me through some mighty bumps in the valley. One of the bumps bounced my head on the canopy. I got off just west of the Dave's Gulch and proceded to miss a couple of bubbles in the valley. I saw the Bergfalke on the ridge going up. I joined the two Doug's (Bradley & Cline) in the Bergfalke in a little thermal and up we went. The day developed into some pretty good lift up to 5,500' MSL and quite a few streets going east/west. The problem was that the wind was over 20 knots from 270 degs. Very slow going west to Nunda and Swain. Some fast downwind dashes to Cohocton and more slow going coming back to DSV. I finally topped out at 6,000' MSL near Nunda again but it started to look like it was overdeveloping to the west with the threat of rain. I came down after two hours and put away the 304 in time to help put away some of the club gliders that got caught in the shower (Mark Wasserbauer in the Grob and Doug Cline in the Pegasus). Everyone present came out and towel dried the Gob and Pegasus in the hangar. Nice to get the dust off them. It was a very light shower so the Bergfalke and ASK 21 stayed out on the runway with eager ride passengers awaiting passing of the shower. Another interesting day at DSV. No two days are ever the same in Soaring.
--Previous Message--
: OK, from now on, the format is going to be:
: first, a summary, in just a few sencences or
: less, which try to address the questions
: "which of the weekend days (or neither)
: is better for soaring?" and "what
: kind of soaring, or just vfr?". That
: way people get the basic skinny up front.
: Then I'll provide some insight as to why,
: some details as to how synopticians think
: while preparing their forecasts. For those
: who are so inclined that is...not everyone I
: have discovered is interested in how the
: elements of vector analysis apply for
: example to synoptic scale vertical velocity.
: So here we go:
:
: (1) Saturday: monster summer-like ridge with
: surface high centered to our south east
: guarantees hot, especially Dansville which
: will probably set records. Ridge working,
: thermals too, OK for short tasks, not good
: for Diamond goal attempts. Slight chance of
: "deep convection". It will take a
: while in the morning for the south,
: valley-effect wind to lessen: the power
: traffic will be using their 14 for a couple
: hours at least, but eventually we should be
: able to operate from our 32 after the
: switch, for the rest of the day.
: (2) Sunday: nearly identical to Saturday.
: Differences not worth mentioning here.
:
: DETAILS: Just a little. Trying to precisely
: predict when and where a thunderstorm might
: occur in this scnerio (there is a slight
: chance both days) is like this: you put a
: pot of water on the stove and turn the heat
: on full. You know the water is going to boil
: eventually, and you can even predict when on
: the basis of previous experiments. But,
: exactly where is that first bubble going to
: form on the bottom of the pot? Or, if the
: heat is on low, you will never get a rolling
: boil, but there will still be convective
: bubbles randomly and occasionally forming.
: To predict where and when, you would need to
: monitor the temperature of the bottom of the
: pot with a sufficiently-dense grid of
: sensors with sufficient resolution (spaced,
: say, a few millimeters apart) to resolve and
: model the evolving convection.
: Theoretically, this could be done (hundreds
: of radiosondes covering western NY, model
: running every few minutes), but it would be
: prohibitively expensive. We've talked about
: this before.
: Bottom line: the air is going to be hot, so
: we don't need to add any of our hot tempers
: to the brew. Let's all fly, have a good
: time, and a good drink afterwards!
:
: Ray
:
:
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