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Posted by Chuck Z. on 5/23/2008, 10:57 am, in reply to "Holiday Weekend"
64.12.117.202
There is no question that Saturday will be the better day! How do I know? Easy, I have OPS Duty on Saturday. See you at the field. Grumble, Grumble!
--Previous Message--
: The good news: the models agree completely
: that Saturday and Sunday are going to be
: lovely for all outdoor activities. The bad
: news: by 84 hours into the future, both of
: the two most relied-upon models (GFS and
: NAM), while still showing roughly similar
: geostrophic flow (balance between pressure
: gradient and Coriolis force) pattens at
: levels up to 500 mb (the so-called
: "level of nondivergence", very
: important...more later), go nuts as per
: vertical velocity fields (which determine
: precip). If the horizontal component of the
: prognosticated wind field is off by, say,
: 10%, so what?, for example, 3.3 plus or
: minus 0.33 meters/sec, the 33 cm/sec
: discrepancy is no big deal. But the vertical
: velocity fields (AKA synoptic scale ascent
: or decent) are critical as per precip. If
: the prog says minus 20 cm/sec, and what
: happens is plus 2 cm/sec, that 22 cm/sec
: discrepancy is the difference between clear
: skies and rain. For details as to why the
: models differ, the interested reader (Rick)
: is invited to study the Buffalo NWS Area
: Forecast Discussion. So, the two questions
: for us are:
:
: (1) Will Saturday or Sunday be the better
: soaring day? Answer: although both will
: feature good thermals (consult your favorite
: Blip maps or tea leaves), if anyone's
: planning a substantive XC, Saturday is your
: ticket, because later in the day on Sunday,
: both NAM and GFS show us on the "back
: side" of the surface high, which means
: warm advection aloft, which means you might
: not get back home (why?).
:
: (2) Will it rain on Monday? Probably. When?
: Who the hell knows? Stay tuned.
:
: Bottom line: PERFECT weekend for glider
: gurus. We can play on Sat and Sun, then get
: the needed Brownie points on Monday with the
: family barbeque, visiting relatives, mowing
: lawns, satisfying the wife (if that's
: possible), garden prep, and so ad infinitum.
:
: Ray
:
:
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