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Posted by Chuck Zabinski on 5/17/2008, 5:33 pm, in reply to "Thanks for the weather Report"
205.188.117.202
Riz is doing the weather briefing so I will bring my store of rotten tomatoes to blame him for the lousy soaring forecast. Should I bring some for Cipriano (my brother) too?
Seriously, I really appreciate the weather updates from Ray. Keep them coming, please!
Chuck
--Previous Message--
: So, thanks Ray for doing my homework for me.
: Tune in to an exciting weather reprt
: tomorrow AM at 10! Dont worry Ray, I will
: cite you along with the FAA. JR
:
: --Previous Message--
: Having apparently successfully deluded
: several
: club members into thinking I know something
: about the weather, I will continue with this
: exercise.
:
: So, since yesterday, the GFS and NAM have
: converged rather nicely, allowing for
: increased confidence in what follows. The
: Good News: BOTH days are going to be
: fantastic soaring days! The Bad News: you
: and your aircraft are going to have to be
: fully IFR rated, and you'll have to convince
: flight service you aren't crazy when you
: file your flight plan. Seriously, without a
: doubt the wind both days will be pretty much
: smack on the ridge, AND the 500 mb low,
: centered to our north, may even prove
: sufficiently strong to generate a
: substantive (Gold altitude) wave. There will
: no doubt be some chances to play legally
: (VFR) and safely in between the
: rain-producing "spokes". The
: timing of those spokes is, as alluded to
: yesterday, impossible to predict because:
: (1) They are mesoscale features as opposed
: to synoptic scale (tens of miles in size as
: opposed to hundreds, respectively); to
: "resolve" them, one would need a
: sufficeintly-dense data-gathering network,
: along the lines of that used at the Severe
: Storms Lab in Norman Oklahoma developed by
: Dr. Fujita to try to predict
: tornados...something like a sounding station
: placed every 10 km; (2) the time scale of
: the features is also too fine; given the
: above network, the model would have to be
: re-initiated every 10 minutes or so. I think
: you all can appreciate how much money doing
: both tasks might cost. Nevertheless, if the
: ceiling is high enough (roughly 1500' AGl),
: one can stay on the ridge in the
: "clear", that is, below cloud
: base, even while it's raining (for the same
: amount of liquid water per unit volume of
: air, raindrops are far less effective in
: scattering visible light than fog droplets).
: Ben there, done that, no sweat if.... You do
: have to be hyper-vigilant lest the cloud
: base drops abruptly, a passing shower cuts
: you off from the airport, or, more
: excitingly, some deep convection (read: CB)
: materializes (these is a slight chance of
: that). For you IFR people, you of course are
: going to need a Faraday-Cage ship, and
: unfortunately we've lost our Blanik. We will
: also need to be hyper-vigilant re ground
: handling...it will be gusty (close to 30
: both days). This is one of those weekends
: where the pilot's meeting is more that a
: formality. Situational awareness, bigtime.
:
: So, yours truly is planning to be at the
: airport bright and early tomorrow morning.
: I am going to make a concerted effort to
: slip some amyl nitrate into the coffee cup
: of the tow pilot, so that he can't remember
: later what I've asked him to do.
:
:
:
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