[ Post a Response | FLSC Message Board ]
Posted by Ray
on 5/15/2008, 9:58 am, in reply to "Re: Weekend Possibilities"
66.67.169.40
Thanks Doug and Chuck (my brother) for that vote of confidence. To forecast the kind of detail we (soaring pilots) need for Sunday (three days ahead), tea leaves would probably work as well as the models in this synoptic scenario. Therefore: tomorrow morning I'll post a weekend update...hopefully by then the models will be slightly less schizophrenic.
Ray
--Previous Message--
: Hi Ray:
: Thanks for your excellent and informative
: weather prediction. I encourage you to
: continue providing such predictions, they
: will help us formulate our soaring plans and
: teach us more about weather prediction.
:
: Best regards
: Doug
:
:
: --Previous Message--
: Since I have to do it for myself anyway, I
: thought what the heck, might as well post my
: inclinations as per soaring prospects for
: any upcoming weekend for all to see, whilst
: at the same time sneaking in, incrementally
: and hopefully painlessly, bits of science.
: If people get annoyed with this just say so
: and I'll stop.
:
: So of course by now all of you know this is
: not the weekend to focus on your
: badge-attempt preparations. Nor however will
: it be a total "washout". Those
: instructors who have new students can make
: some progress "in between the
: spokes" (hold on). A major question:
: which will be the better of the two days.
: Answer: damned if I know! Reason: two of the
: main medium-range models used by the pros
: (GFS and NAM) differ markedly in the
: positioning of the 500 mb vorticity max in
: their 84 hr. progs (crucially important,
: will explain later). Everyone knows model
: accuracies decrease drastically from time
: zero, and 84 hrs (3.5 days) is far enough
: out to preclude any betting. The general
: positioning of the trough axis is reasonably
: close in both models, but the timing of the
: "spokes" of energy (specifically,
: mesoscale vorticity) which rotate around the
: low like spokes in a bike wheel, under which
: it will be crappy and between which it will
: be vfr, is impossible to predict, for two
: major reasons I'll defer explaining for now.
:
: Bottom line: go to the airport at least one
: day, dammit! There's always something
: constructive to do.
: PS The 60 hour progs are markedly superior
: to the 84. So tomorrow morning I'll have a
: much better idea as to which of the two days
: will be better. If anyone's interested let
: me know and I will post.
:
: Ray
:
:
:
Message Thread:
« Back to thread