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Posted by Ray
on 5/15/2008, 9:50 am, in reply to "Re: Weekend Possibilities"
66.67.169.40
--Previous Message--
: Hi Ray:
: Thanks for your excellent and informative
: weather prediction. I encourage you to
: continue providing such predictions, they
: will help us formulate our soaring plans and
: teach us more about weather prediction.
:
: Best regards
: Doug
:
:
: --Previous Message--
: Since I have to do it for myself anyway, I
: thought what the heck, might as well post my
: inclinations as per soaring prospects for
: any upcoming weekend for all to see, whilst
: at the same time sneaking in, incrementally
: and hopefully painlessly, bits of science.
: If people get annoyed with this just say so
: and I'll stop.
:
: So of course by now all of you know this is
: not the weekend to focus on your
: badge-attempt preparations. Nor however will
: it be a total "washout". Those
: instructors who have new students can make
: some progress "in between the
: spokes" (hold on). A major question:
: which will be the better of the two days.
: Answer: damned if I know! Reason: two of the
: main medium-range models used by the pros
: (GFS and NAM) differ markedly in the
: positioning of the 500 mb vorticity max in
: their 84 hr. progs (crucially important,
: will explain later). Everyone knows model
: accuracies decrease drastically from time
: zero, and 84 hrs (3.5 days) is far enough
: out to preclude any betting. The general
: positioning of the trough axis is reasonably
: close in both models, but the timing of the
: "spokes" of energy (specifically,
: mesoscale vorticity) which rotate around the
: low like spokes in a bike wheel, under which
: it will be crappy and between which it will
: be vfr, is impossible to predict, for two
: major reasons I'll defer explaining for now.
:
: Bottom line: go to the airport at least one
: day, dammit! There's always something
: constructive to do.
: PS The 60 hour progs are markedly superior
: to the 84. So tomorrow morning I'll have a
: much better idea as to which of the two days
: will be better. If anyone's interested let
: me know and I will post.
:
: Ray
:
:
:
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