[ Post a Response | FLSC Message Board ]
Posted by Ray
on 5/15/2008, 7:15 am
74.74.189.128
Since I have to do it for myself anyway, I thought what the heck, might as well post my inclinations as per soaring prospects for any upcoming weekend for all to see, whilst at the same time sneaking in, incrementally and hopefully painlessly, bits of science. If people get annoyed with this just say so and I'll stop.
So of course by now all of you know this is not the weekend to focus on your badge-attempt preparations. Nor however will it be a total "washout". Those instructors who have new students can make some progress "in between the spokes" (hold on). A major question: which will be the better of the two days. Answer: damned if I know! Reason: two of the main medium-range models used by the pros (GFS and NAM) differ markedly in the positioning of the 500 mb vorticity max in their 84 hr. progs (crucially important, will explain later). Everyone knows model accuracies decrease drastically from time zero, and 84 hrs (3.5 days) is far enough out to preclude any betting. The general positioning of the trough axis is reasonably close in both models, but the timing of the "spokes" of energy (specifically, mesoscale vorticity) which rotate around the low like spokes in a bike wheel, under which it will be crappy and between which it will be vfr, is impossible to predict, for two major reasons I'll defer explaining for now.
Bottom line: go to the airport at least one day, dammit! There's always something constructive to do.
PS The 60 hour progs are markedly superior to the 84. So tomorrow morning I'll have a much better idea as to which of the two days will be better. If anyone's interested let me know and I will post.
Ray
Message Thread:
« Back to thread