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Posted by Ray
on 5/8/2008, 5:21 am, in reply to "Saturday Weather"
66.67.227.202
Everyone knows that the plethora of models out there diverge in time, the degree of which varies with the synoptic situation. If we ever get net access in the clubhouse I'll be glad to show people some of the tricks of the trade (Jari has first dibbs). Or better yet, have a small seminar some rainy weekend morning at which anyone interested can benefit.
This weekend: whenever a low is progged to hit the Atlantic and move up the coast, forecasters get nervous, since they (the lows) tend to "misbehave" (deviate from the models). This misbehavior is less pronounced in the spring as opposed to the fall (why?). Bottom line: Saturday is in the bag. AM perfect for instruction (esp. winch), and PM for some soaring since things should have dried out by then. Sunday VFR most of the day, albeit with increasing warm advection aloft, which is bad (why?). Make your tax dollars work and go to
httphttp://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_700_wnd&loop=1://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_700_wnd&loop=1
That's what the "forecasters" on TV read before they go on the air. A bit technical, but with time you'll catch on. If you're pressed for time, just scroll down to the bottom and read the aviation section. And, especially if you're wondering if the ridge will be working, read the marine forecast (why?).
Swami Ray
--Previous Message--
: Not sure what weather swami Jim is getting his
: readings from but they have been known to
: change their predictions from moment to
: moment. Right now the crystal ball says
: clear and 63 on Saturday. Lets dare the
: weather gods by showing up to fly!
:
: Rick
:
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