Skybet free bet offer for 1:30
Posted by gringo18 on March 13, 2018, 1:30 pm
May be worth using for this selection. |
1.30 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 13th March 2018:
Sky Bet Supreme Novicesī Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+):
Distance: 2 miles half a furlong on the old course.
The traditional curtain raiser to the Festival run over the same distance as the Champion Hurdle and open to Novices four years old and upwards. Runners are required to jump eight flights and the race is noted for it's fast pace.
10 year key trends:
9 of the last 10 winners had won at least 50% of their hurdle starts.
9 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 59 days.
8 of the last 10 winners won last time out.
8 of the last 10 winners had previously contested a Graded race, seven won.
8 of the last 10 winners were rated within eight pounds of the RPR top rated, only 2 winners were top rated.
7 of the last 10 winners started their career in Bumpers, earning an RPR of at least 110.
3 of the last 10 winners had previously run in the Champion Bumper.
Other trends to consider:
Willie Mullins has a 5 from 36 record.
3 of the last 4 winners were BHA top rated.
The last 9 winners had run in at least 4 hurdle races
7 of the last 16 winners had contested a Graded Bumper at Cheltenham, Aintree or Punchestown the previous Spring.
10 of the last 16 winners had contested a Grade One hurdle, five had won.
Ireland has won 15 times in the past 27 years.
Of the last 10 Irish winners, seven were the most fancied.
Since 2000 there have only been two winners aged seven or older.
Only 2 of the last 15 winners were unbeaten over hurdles.
Only 3 of the last 21 winners were beaten on their previous start.
In the past 26 years no horse has won in headgear, 34 have tried.
Horses given noticeable hold-up rides have only won 4 of the last 21 renewals.
Short priced favourites (3/1 or less) have a 4 from 21 record.
Backing horses in this race just because they are the highest BHA rated coming into the event has not always been a good strategy but it has produced three of the last four winners. One of those one was a favourite and one a joint favourite. Prior to that many of those top rated were backed into favouritism and failed at short prices. In a race such as this where most are very unexposed it may not be the horse that has produced the best form so far that produces the best performance on the day. The Irish have won 15 of the last 27 renewals of this race and, in recent seasons, it has been their main hope according to the market which has prevailed. Winners of top class Novice races invariably need a prep run and the trends for the Supreme support that theory. Only one winner in the past decade was absent for more than 59 days. Last time out winners have featured prominently in the winners enclosure of the vast majority of recent renewals and over half of those have won their two previous races. This is a race where it doesn't normally pay to be held up. An ability to travel, race prominently, stay and jump proficiently are normally assets that give a horse it's best chance. Younger improving horses are obviously suited to this race so it's not surprising that since 1990 there have been eleven five year old winners and twelve six year old winners. The races which have been the best pointers to the winners of this race are the previous season's Champion Bumper, The Delottie Hurdle at Leopardstown, The Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse, and The EBF Novices hurdle at this track. A race that seems to throw up horses that do not fare well in the Supreme Is the SkyBet Novices race here in November.
Given his record of winning this race five times and having saddled at least one horse to finish in the first two in the past five seasons the first port of call has to be Willie Mullins, in particular his most fancied runner. Not surprisingly it also happens to be the market leader, Getabird, who comes into the race having won all four starts, two over hurdles. An ex-Irish point winner, he made his debut over hurdles over 20 furlongs at Punchestown in heavy ground suggesting that he was seen as a stayer. In his early days at the yard the subsequently injured pair, Sayar and Annamix, were seen as sharper types. However Getabird was dropped back to two miles for his last start and his dispatching of the ex-flat horse Mengli Khan, getting six pounds, was both emphatic and visually impressive. He seemed to quicken up that day with the minimum of urging from his rider and seemed to prove that he has the pace for a race such as the Supreme. The proximity of Mengli Khan to those behind him does suggest that he was not at his best but that shouldn't detract from the winners performance, such was the ease of his victory. Testing conditions can only help his cause having proven his ability to stay further and this could be the year where the 'speedier' types struggle. Being a short-priced favourite the stats are against him and there are a few notable negatives that he has to overcome. He doesn't have the best conformation which makes him a fragile horse who doesn't take much hard training. As such he comes into this race with less experience over hurdles than a typical winner and is right on the cusp of the preferable less than 59 day rest. This is also only his second attempt on a left handed a track and the first resulted in him running out in a Point race at the second obstacle. More of a worry are the rumours that his latest work has not been up to his best. It doesn't take many negatives about a horse at a short price in a race of this nature to have you looking for alternatives.
Kalashnikov has shown that he is tough and his attitude off the bridle will always be an asset in Championship races. He eventually ran out an easy winner when he reverted to handicap company to win the Betfair Hurdle but he has few questions to answer. Prior to his victory in the Betfair connections had voiced their concerns concerning the soft ground and, although he overcame those fears, doing it against Graded performers proven in the condiitons is a different scenario compared to handicappers. He came off the bridle a long way from home and he could find it difficult to lay up with the faster horses here, even though he will probably be cutting their advantage back in the latter stages. His five races to date have come on galloping tracks, most of them flat, and this track poses a different problem. His racing style doesn't suggest a 'sharper' track will suit and there are more than a few who may not be stopping fast enough for him to get his head in front.
Paloma Blue has improved with each of his four starts over hurdles and he set his stall out for this when finishing third at Leopardstown last time out. Despite running freely he was only overhauled in the latter stages by Samcro and Duc Des Genievres. He is said to prefer better ground but he has handled testing conditions adequately so far and he will get plenty of assistance from the saddle. He has been keen in a few of his races so the likely decent pace of this race could help in that respect and his prominent racing style has proved to be an advantage in the majority of recent renewals.
First Flow has arrived late on the scene, mainly due to ground conditions. He has proved a better horse over hurdles than he was a bumper horse, winning all three starts over the smaller obstacles. They all came in testing ground and culminated in a Grade Two victory in a race which has produced some good quality winners. However this year's renewal hasn't worked out well and First Flow's presence here almost seems an afterthought. He is progressive and it's difficult to know where the ceiling of his ability actually is but he will do well to win a race he doesn't seem to have been aimed at.
Summerville Boy hasn't been seen since winning at Sandown in early January and that means he come into this race on the back of a longer break than ideal. That last win was a four length victory over Kalishnikov and he showed a good attitude when he was put under pressure. Kalashnikov has improved since but there's every possibility that Summerville Boy could do likewise and he has the added advantage of having experience of this track. He had excuses for two earlier defeats but he was seen in a different light given a true gallop and he is likely to get that here. His hurdling technique is one area where he needs to find some improvement but it's unlikely that fact has been lost on his Trainer and he will have been well schooled since his last start.
Those to have been disappointing last time out include Claimintakinforgan, Sharjah and Slate House but each of them could get competitive if they resumed earlier progress.Mengli Khan was well beaten by Getabird last time out but a six pound pull and his Trainer's knack of producing a horse to perform at his best when it matters means he cannot be written off. Western Rydercould do well of those at very big prices having run well in last season's Bumper.
Getabird will be on many 'banker lists' but the latest vibes from the yard have to be a concern. He could win this in a hack canter but he makes little appeal at 2/1 or less. Kalashnikov has some of the best form on offer. He is tough but it's debatable whether this course will suit, he has the requisite pace and has the class to beat proven Graded performers in these conditions. First Flow is very progressive and conditions have come in his favour but the fact he wasn't originally aimed at this race raises the question whether connections really believe he is good enough to win. Paloma Blue may have enough inherent ability to be involved, despite apparently having a preference for better ground, but slight preference is for Summerville Boy. His hold-up style isn't suited to this race but the likely generous gallop will be to his liking and his attitude and potential for improvement make him appealing at his current price.
Selection: (Outlay - 1.5 pts)
Summerville Boy - 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1. (Unibet, Sportingbet, 888Sport) or 7/1 ( Money back as a free bet if selection loses - Skybet (£20 Max)).
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