had sod all /not much back recently so ignored forecast and double. Gah.
None of our selections gave us a return yesterday. Mr Fox found the favourite too good when finishing second at Chelmsford. Insurplus was a bit short of room in the latter stages when finishing fourth at Newcastle.
Today's Selections:
7.30 - Kempton: Seaport. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1. Blazon. 1.25 pts e/w. Available at 10/1.
A competitive two mile handicap with only four pounds separating the top eight in the weights. Two come into this race on the back of victories, one of those being Seaport. He was Group Three placed in France and joined current connections back in 2016. Lumbered with an initial mark of 100, he originally found life tough, but he did place twice on the A/W from a mark of 87 in Jan/Feb. 2018. He was well beaten in four subsequent starts on turf spread over a 14 month period but he returned from a second bout of wind surgery and a six months absence to win very narrowly back on the A/W at Wolverhampton last month. The form doesn't amount to much and it was a very steadily run affair, so it's probably unreliable, but he is only one pound higher here. He now runs off 71 so, if he retains a chunk of his ability of two years ago, he could still be well weighted. He has to conclusively prove his stamina but on the upside it means he is unexposed over staying trips. Blazon was well beaten at Wolverhampton last month but that was a return from a 177 days absence so it was likely needed. He was a three time winner on the A/W in Jan/Feb of last year and two of those victories came over this C/D, the last of them from today's mark. He has only been here once since those victories and he ran better than his finishing fifth suggests, having to come from well back against a pace bias. There appears enough pace in this race for him to seen to best effect and his NH yard do well with the horses they race on the flat on the artificial surfaces. In recent seasons they have a profitable 23% strike rate (7 from 31) on the A/W tracks, recording 4 from 18 over that period at this venue.
8.00 - Kempton - Johnny Reb. 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1.
True Belief, Classic Star and Phoenix Star dominate the market for this seven furlong handicap but, at a much bigger price, it may be worth taking a flyer on Johnny Reb. He is a four year old who is now with his third different Trainer and in danger of not fulfilling the initial promise he showed with Jeremy Noseda. He was placed in three six furlong Novice races before joining Charlie Fellowes and being gelded after disappointing on his first start for him. Two subsequent outings didn't prove fruitful, although he wasn't beaten far from a mark of 74 at Chelmsford last September. Sold to present connections in October there was a hint of promise on his debut for his current yard where he chased a strong pace and wasn't beaten far (eventually beaten four lengths). That came from a mark of 71 on the back of a 110 days break and was only his second start over today's trip. He didn't run up to that level when disappointing over six furlongs at Southwell last time out but a poor run at a track which doesn't suit all horses can be forgiven. There doesn't look to be a lot of pace in this race so, if he adopts his normal prominent racing style, he could be well placed when the pace quickens. He is now down to a career ow mark of 65 and that has enabled him to drop into this class for the first time. His fledgling Trainer is among the winners with two of his five horses to have run on the A/W this year recording two victories and three second places between them.
on February 12, 2020, 8:10 pm