For today, I wanted to focus on the women's bracket, which looks a little simpler than the men.
One thing I didn't know until last week was how, unlike with the men, there has never been a #2 or a #3 seed to lose in the first round (meaning a 15 or a 14 never advanced). That could be due to the structure of the first and second rounds. A seed between 1 and 4 gets to play those two games literally on their home court. It's been about 20 years since Harvard was able to upset #1 (Stanford, I think). The number 4 seeds have a really dominant record, too (yet not undefeated).
Well, looking at 2018, if all you did was pick the higher seed in every game, you would've compiled a 23-9 record in the first round. My bracket beat that performance by going 25-7.
I like to look for patterns, though, so let's dive in.
All of the seeds from 1 to 4 won their first games, so that was 16 wins that were probably too easy to predict.
A 5 seed was 3-1 against a 12 seed. My bracket somehow went 4-0 in those games!! How did I know where the upset would happen? Well, I really didn't. I've gone back to the conference standings for some insight.
The losing 5 seed was Missouri, which plays in the Southeast Conference (SEC). They finished tied for the fourth best record in conference games. The winning 12 seed was Florida Gulf Coast, which plays in the Atlantic Sun conference. They finished 13-1 against the rest of the conference in the regular season (to win that title). Their schedule makes it look like they also won a conference tournament.
Pretty much, I remembered the men's team for FGCU being a low seed (14 or 15) and winning at least two games in a recent tournament. Let's remember Missouri and the SEC for some of the other games, though.
An 11 seed was 3-1 against a 6 seed. Crazy, right? In a 100 game sample size, the 6th seed had a 69% chance to win. It must've been higher before this year's results, though. My bracket only went 1-3 in those games (no 11 seeds predicted to win).
What did the 11 seeds have in common? Could someone have seen those results coming? Buffalo was one of the first upsets I noticed, when they beat South Florida. Buffalo plays in a conference called Mid-American where they were 16-2 (first place) in the East division. It looks like they lost the conference tournament to Central Michigan (remember that school). South Florida plays in the same conference as the best team from the past 5-10 seasons. That might not mean the rest of the conference is very strong, though. It looks like South Florida finished second in the conference (13-3), but one of those losses was to unranked Wichita State. Overall, they were only ranked 19 or 20 in the polls (which sounds like a 5 seed, but the committee apparently put them lower).
Let's stay in the Mid-America conference, where Central Michigan played LSU from the SEC. Central Michigan went 17-1 in their conference games for the West division. They most likely won the conference tournament. LSU are only listed 7th in their conference. They tied for the fourth best record in the conference with four other teams, but it doesn't look like they compare very well with those teams. They lost in the first round of the conference tournament, and had the fewest total wins out of the group.
In other words, some of this stuff is making sense after the fact? It would be hard to go through every team's full schedule just to fill out a bracket. Missouri and LSU both seemed to underperform, relative to their seed. Or, was the SEC just a weaker conference this season?
Finally, (6) Iowa (11-5, T3, "Big Ten" [a 14 team conference]) played (11) Creighton (11-7, 4th, "Big" East - which now has 10 teams). I think I remember stressing out over this one while I was filling out the bracket. Creighton has at least a little name recognition for me, but mostly because of the men's team (Kyle Korver? Doug McDermott?). Then, I know how the Big Ten for the women has some high level teams (Maryland, Ohio State, Minnesota when they had Lindsay Whalen), but what does that have to do with Iowa? In the end, I put Iowa into my Sweet 16, so I'm obviously going to lose points from taking that "risk" (on what should be a top 25 seed).
The 7/10 matchup: The games and my bracket finished 2-2. I didn't pick the 7 every time. Minnesota (Big Ten) was somehow seeded 10th against Green Bay (16-2 Horizon League), so that just looked like a mismatch. I didn't know I was supposed to pick 8th place Virginia from the ACC to beat 5th place California. Then, the Viriginia men had maybe their best season, but lost to University of Maryland Baltimore County?
Back to the women: I had Nebraska (tied for 3rd in the Big Ten) upsetting a higher seeded Arizona State (only 6th in their conference). I'm not sure if anything would have changed my mind there. The Pac 12 where Arizona State plays might be really deep, but does that mean they're one of the better teams from the conference?
Then, I feel like what messes with my head are the 8/9 pairings in any bracket. They rarely have an impact on who eventually wins, and the overall results almost look like flipping a coin. For the women, a 9 seed actually has a 53% chance to win. This year, the 9s went 3-1. My bracket was 2-2 in those games.
I knew about (9) Villanova beating South Dakota State. That was probably 90% name recognition. I liked Quinnipiac, who went 18-0 in a conference called MAAC, more than Miami (tied for 6th in the ACC). Now that I look at Syracuse beating Oklahoma State (which didn't happen), I wonder why I wouldn't favor OK State. All they did was finish tied for 3rd in a conference with Baylor and Texas. Syracuse had a similar record to the Miami team that I thought would lose to Quinnipiac. Then, Dayton (wrong pick) won their conference, but Marquette was co-ranked #1 in the Big East. I may not have been paying close attention to these 8 vs 9 games.
So, if I look at some of the conferences as a whole, the ACC might put FIVE teams into the Sweet 16 (Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State, NC State, Duke). I didn't move NC State into my Sweet 16, even though they were a higher seed against Maryland (and, therefore, playing at home). Once you get to the Syracuse and Miami section of the standings, those teams didn't last in the bracket.
The Big East got their top four teams out of the first round: DePaul, Marquette, Villanova, Creighton. I saw DePaul lose as a 5 seed against Texas A & M (17 point comeback). The other three will be lower seeds in their next games.
In the Big Ten, Maryland, Iowa, and Nebraska have cost me four losses so far. You'd figure Ohio State should be able to beat Central Michigan?
The Pac-12 looks strong with Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, and Oregon State (already in the Sweet 16). Arizona State would have to upset Texas.
Then, I'd say the SEC looks really vulnerable, even though it was the only conference to put a team in last year's national championship. Mississippi State and South Carolina look strong again, but I got a little bit fooled by Tennessee (name recognition), Missouri, and LSU.
I might write something for the men. Right now, my bracket is wrong for the overall winner. I could still put three teams into the Final Four, but I'm afraid to look at who is still left from the Sweet 16 (definitely not Loyola or Syracuse - their coach said his team didn't belong in this tournament; unless that was a hot take/reverse psychology?).
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WWE 2K18 ROSTER & MATCH TYPES | ||||
If you see multiple of the same name, it just means different versions that can be in the ring together. Names highlighted in blue are Cruiserweights | ||||
1 Up Man Adam Cole Aerostar Aiden English AJ Styles Akam Akira Tozawa Albert Aleister Black Alexander Wolfe Andrade "Cien" Almas Andre The Giant Angelo Dawkins Animal Apollo Crews Ariya Daivari Arnold T101 Austin Aries B Brian Blair Bam Bam Bigelow Baron Corbin Barron Blade Batista '10 Beautiful Bobby Eaton Big Boss Man '91 Big Boss Man '99 Big Cass Big E Big Show Big Show '00 Bo Dallas Bobby Fish Bobby Roode Booker T Braun Strowman Bray Wyatt Bret Hart '97 Bret Hart '98 Brian Kendrick British Bulldog Brock Lesnar Brutus Beefcake Bryan Danielson Buddy Roberts Butch Cactus Jack '92 Cactus Jack '98 Captain Jobber Cedric Alexander Cesaro Chad Gable Chris Jericho |
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Bobby Heenan Lana |
Mr. McMahon Paul Ellering Paul Heyman |
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MATCH TYPES | ||||
*** ONE ON ONE *** Normal |
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MATCH MODIFIERS | ||||
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Perform Finisher to Win On, Off First Blood Climb out of Cage (Cage Match Only) DQ |
Rope Break (Automatic) On, Off Ring Out Elimination |
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SUPER SMASH BROS. ROSTER & SETTINGS | |||
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BATTLE TYPES TIME BATTLE: All characters battle for a set amount of time scoring one point per KO and LOSING one point each time they are KO'ed. STOCK BATTLE: All characters have a set number of lives and when they run out, they're done. When combined with a time limit whomever has more lives left when time runs out wins. COIN BATTLE: For 2-4 characters ONLY! Coins are knocked out of characters as they battle. After a fixed time limit whomever has the most coins wins. SETTINGS TIME LIMIT: Can be from 1 to 15 minutes. |