It started where I just wanted to compare teams on general categories (total yards, turnovers). Early on, I was depending on the 2014 data. Currently, I've got 2015 and 2014 side by side. This week, I added the new wrinkle of yards per attempt in a few passing and rushing comparisons.
So, for example, Eagles vs Redskins looks like a close call "on paper." The biggest thing that sticks out to me are the give/take totals. The Eagles might be giving it away twice per game, but the Redskins have only forced 1 takeaway. I'm trying to remember who they played. The Giants protect the ball really well this season. I don't think the Dolphins or the Rams are more than average or below average in turnovers, though.
Anyway, I wondered why the Eagles could still be favored in a road game where both teams have the same record. They split last season's series in a strange way. Both road teams had huge advantages in total yards PLUS the time of possession was in their favor. The turnovers were exactly even in both games, BUT it was the home team winning by a field goal each time.
Based on the more specific stats for each team's offense and defense, it paints an interesting picture for this game. The Eagles' "strength" (if you can call it that) is probably passing. They've needed 117 attempts to average 5.8 yards per attempt. The Redskins defending passes have only faced 98 attempts, but they've yielded 6.7 yards per attempt, with 0 interceptions. I guess the logic is that, even if the Eagles don't throw as much as normal, the defense might allow them more yards per attempt than their baseline?
The Redskins like to run. They've done it 94 times, for 4.6 yards per carry, scoring 2 TDs. When the Eagles face the run, they've allowed 84 carries, for just 3.1 yards each time, and 0 TDs. I guess you mainly need to figure out if the better defense brings the offensive number down (that's usually what happens in baseball All-Star games, but this is football), and then if defenses are being even more generous than what an offense might try to do against them.
The problem is, I definitely don't have time to take note of every matchup from every weekly game. I'd have to be more selective, or just figure out why a certain team is favored. Right now, I've picked every consensus favorite in the Pick 'Em, but the stats mostly backed up those picks.
Having typed all of that, here's the awesome matchup of the week. I realize nothing is "guaranteed" in the NFL or in fantasy, but this was pretty neat to discover. It seems like Carolina should be a better team than Tampa Bay (the Panthers won the division last year, and Tampa Bay had the #1 pick in the draft). I just didn't know how to prove that hunch.
In fantasy, here's what happened when I compared the Panthers on defense and the Buccaneers on offense:
Panthers - 16.0 points allowed, 315 total yards, 6 takeaways (4 INTs, 2 fumbles), 7 sacks
Buccaneers - 16.3 points scored, 308 total yards, 5 giveaways (3 INTs, 2 fumbles), 7 sacks
Crazy, right? I could see the giveaway/takeaway maybe being close due to the number of games played this season, but the same number of fumbles and within one interception?
In 2014, they played each other twice, with these defensive numbers for Carolina:
@ Buccaneers - 14 points allowed, 264 total yards, 3 takeaways (2 INTs, 1 fumble), 3 sacks
vs Buccaneers - 17 points allowed, 287 total yards, 3 takeaways (1 INT, 2 fumbles), 3 sacks
Are you kidding me?!! That's amazing consistency for this league. Let's calculate the averages, and then compare them to 2015:
Panthers D in 2014 vs/@TB - 15.5 points allowed, 275.5 total yards, 3 takeaways (1.5 INTs, 1.5 fumbles), 3 sacks
2015 averages vs other teams - 16.0 points allowed, 315 total yards, 2.0 takeaways per game (1.33 INTs, 0.67 fumbles), 2.33 sacks per game
Essentially, they're even better at not allowing the yards, and they also get some boosts in the takeaways and sacks. That was just TOO cool.
You might (not) be wondering about the Carolina offense vs the Tampa Bay defense's numbers. Look how closely THOSE mirror each other:
Panthers offense - 23.7 points scored, 216 passing yards, 132 rushing yards, 348 total yards
Buccaneers defense - 26.7 points allowed, 210 passing yards, 138 rushing yards, 348 total yards
In other words, maybe the easiest matchup to predict, assuming that things go according to the averages? The only other variables might be coverage on kicks and punts, since the Panthers are +4 in turnovers, and the Bucs are neutral (5 take, 5 give).
Maybe there's a job for a person who can stare at stats all day, not get bored, and sort of make them come alive or seem relevant? I might like that kind of job.
Better get some rest for tonight. Believe it or not, I STILL have an eliminator pick, a "Record Breaker," a Monday night score, and some possible fantasy tweaks to make at the last minute. That's why I say this is consuming too much time!
1
Responses
WWE 2K18 ROSTER & MATCH TYPES | ||||
If you see multiple of the same name, it just means different versions that can be in the ring together. Names highlighted in blue are Cruiserweights | ||||
1 Up Man Adam Cole Aerostar Aiden English AJ Styles Akam Akira Tozawa Albert Aleister Black Alexander Wolfe Andrade "Cien" Almas Andre The Giant Angelo Dawkins Animal Apollo Crews Ariya Daivari Arnold T101 Austin Aries B Brian Blair Bam Bam Bigelow Baron Corbin Barron Blade Batista '10 Beautiful Bobby Eaton Big Boss Man '91 Big Boss Man '99 Big Cass Big E Big Show Big Show '00 Bo Dallas Bobby Fish Bobby Roode Booker T Braun Strowman Bray Wyatt Bret Hart '97 Bret Hart '98 Brian Kendrick British Bulldog Brock Lesnar Brutus Beefcake Bryan Danielson Buddy Roberts Butch Cactus Jack '92 Cactus Jack '98 Captain Jobber Cedric Alexander Cesaro Chad Gable Chris Jericho |
Chris Jericho '00 Christian Col Sanders Cole Quinn Curt Hawkins Curtis Axel Daniel Bryan Dark Link Darren Young Dash Wilder DDP '92 DDP '98 Dean Ambrose Dennis Condrey Diesel Doc Louis Dolph Ziggler Donatello Drago Drew Gulak Drew McIntyre Dude Love Dusty Rhodes Earthquake Eddie Guerrero Edge El Mago Elias Enzo Amore Epico Colon Eric Young Erick Rowan Fandango Finn Balor Finn Balor Demon The Godfather Goldberg Goldust Gorgeous George Gran Metalik Greg Valentine Hawk Heath Slater Hideo Itami Hurricane Jack Gallagher Jake Roberts Jason Jordan JBL Jeff Hardy Jey Uso Jim Brunzell |
Jim Neidhart Jimmy Garvin Jimmy Uso Jinder Mahal John Cena John Cena '06 John Cena '10 Johnny Gargano The Joker Kalisto Kane Kane '98 Karl Anderson Kassius Ohno Kerry Von Erich Kevin Nash Kevin Owens Kevin Von Erich Killian Dain King Cuerno King Feck Kofi Kingston Konnor Kurt Angle '01 Kurt Angle '06 Kyle O'Reilly Larry Zbysko Lars Sullivan Leonardo Lex Luger Lince Dorado Link Little Mac Luigi Luke Luke Gallows Luke Harper Mankind Mario Mark Henry Matt Hardy Michael Hayes Michaelangelo The Miz Mojo Rawley Montez Ford Mortis Mr.205 Live Mr. McMahon Mr. Perfect Mustafa Ali Necroplasm |
Neville Nick Miller No Way Jose Noam Dar Noob Saibot Oney Locan Optimus Prime Otis Dozovic Papa Shango Pentagon Jr Pete Dunne Primo Colon Prince Puma R-Truth Randy Orton Randy Savage Raphael Razor Ramon Reptile Retro Rick Rey Fenix Rey Mysterio Rezar Rhyno Ric Flair '88 Ric Flair '91 Rich Swann Rick Martel Rick Rude Ricky Morton Ricky Steamboat '91 Ricky Steamboat '94 Rikishi Rob Van Dam '06 Robert Gibson The Rock The Rock '01 Roddy Piper Roderick Strong Roman Reigns Rusev Sami Zayn Samoa Joe Sawyer Fulton Scorpion Scott Dawson Scott Hall Seth Rollins Shane McMahon Shane Thorne Shao Khan Shawn Michaels '97 |
Shawn Michaels '98 Sheamus Shelton Benjamin Shinsuke Nakamura Sin Cara Snoop Dogg Stan Lane Starman Steve Austin '97 Sting Sting '88 Sting '91 Sting '98 Sting '99 Stormtrooper Stunning Steve Austin Subzero MKX Superman Sycho Sid Tatanka Tatsumi Fujinami Ted DiBiase TehJew22 Titus O'Neil TJP Tommaso Ciampa Tony Nese Triple H Triple H '01 Triple H '98 Tucker Knight Tye Dillinger Tyler Bate Tyler Breeze Typhoon Tyson Kidd Ultimate Warrior Ultimo Dragon Undertaker (Classic) The Undertaker Undertaker '00 Vader Vampiro Velveteen Dream Venom Viktor Voltron Waluigi Wario William Regal Xavier Woods Zack Ryder |
WOMEN | ||||
Alexa Bliss Alicia Fox Alundra Blayze Asuka Bayley Becky Lynch Beth Phoenix Bianca Belair Billie Kay Brie Bella Cammy Carmella Charlotte Chun Li Dana Brooke Ember Moon Emma Ivelise Velez |
Ivory Jacqueline Jade Kairi Sane Kharma Kitana Lana Lita Liv Morgan Mandy Rose Mariposa Maryse Mickie James Mileena Naomi Natalya Nia Jax |
Nikki Bella Nikki Cross Paige Peyton Royce Ronda Rousey Ruby Riot Sarah Logan Sasha Banks Sexy Star Shayna Baszler Sonya Blade Sonya Deville Stephanie McMahon Summer Rae Tamina Taya Valkyrie Trish Stratus Wii Fit Trainer | ||
VALETS & MANAGERS Anyone above can be a "manager" plus... | ||||
Bobby Heenan Lana |
Mr. McMahon Paul Ellering Paul Heyman |
Stephanie McMahon Ted DiBiase | ||
MATCH TYPES | ||||
*** ONE ON ONE *** Normal |
*** TRIPLE THREAT *** Normal |
*** FATAL 4 WAY *** Normal |
*** TWO ON TWO *** Normal *** 8-MAN *** Tag Team |
*** 6-MAN *** Tag Team *** HANDICAP *** One on Two Tag |
MATCH MODIFIERS | ||||
Pin & Submission Both, Pin, Submit, Off 2 Out of 3 Falls Iron Man |
Over the Top Rope On, Off K.O. Last Man Standing |
Perform Finisher to Win On, Off First Blood Climb out of Cage (Cage Match Only) DQ |
Rope Break (Automatic) On, Off Ring Out Elimination |
Falls Count Anywhere On, Off Time Limit Entrance Interval (Chamber/Rumble) |
SUPER SMASH BROS. ROSTER & SETTINGS | |||
Akira Alph Austin Powers Bayonetta Bob Ross Bowser Bowser Jr Burger King Captain Falcon Charizard Charlie Brown Chuck Norris Cloud Col Sanders Corrin Dark Pit Diddy Kong Donkey Kong Dr. Mario Dracula Drew Carey |
Duck Hunt Dumbledore Falco Fox Ganondorf Greninja Iggy Jr Ike Jacky Jigglypuff Joker King Dedede Kirby Larry Jr Lemmy Jr Link Little Mac Lucario Lucas Lucina Lucy Ludwig Jr |
Luigi Majora Mario Marth Mega Man Meta Knight Mewtwo Morton Jr Mr. Game & Watch Mr. Miyagi Ness Olimar Pac-Man Palutena Peach Peppermint Patty Pikachu Pit Popeye R.O.B. Retro Rick Robin |
Rosalina & Luma Roy Roy Jr Ryu Samus Sheik Shulk Snoop Dog Sonic Steve Urkel TehJew22 Toon Link Villager Wario Weird Al Wendy Jr Wii Fit Trainer Yoshi Zelda Zero Zerosuit Samus |
BATTLE TYPES TIME BATTLE: All characters battle for a set amount of time scoring one point per KO and LOSING one point each time they are KO'ed. STOCK BATTLE: All characters have a set number of lives and when they run out, they're done. When combined with a time limit whomever has more lives left when time runs out wins. COIN BATTLE: For 2-4 characters ONLY! Coins are knocked out of characters as they battle. After a fixed time limit whomever has the most coins wins. SETTINGS TIME LIMIT: Can be from 1 to 15 minutes. |