ESPN has their "projections," but some of them are really baffling, as least regarding the way I think about fantasy.
Start with just the "#1" overall player on their list: Le'Veon Bell. He finished as the #2 overall RB last year (although I think he outscored DeMarco Murray over the final several weeks). This season, he's going to start off SUSPENDED. That's a guaranteed ZERO in your lineup, plus needing to find a replacement. All I can figure is that, they either think Bell is so far ahead of anyone and will finish as the #1 ranked RB after missing several games, OR, it could just be about how he might help you win weeks 16 and 17, because he'll have been hit fewer times by that point of the season. Still, how do you know you'll be playing for the championship if you start 0-3 or 1-2 from not having Bell available?!!
I saved the "cheat sheets" from 2014, just to compare and do my own research. Here's how they ranked WRs 1-10:
Calvin Johnson
Demaryius Thomas
A. J. Green
Dez Bryant
Brandon Marshall
Julio Jones
Jordy Nelson
Alshon Jeffery
Antonio Brown
Randall Cobb
The ONLY guy on that list who finished in the same spot as his projection was Demaryius Thomas. Dez Bryant finished tied for 3rd, so that's almost the same thing. Julio, Antonio, and Cobb were all within the top 10 of the final rankings. Antonio Brown was really underrated, since he finished in first place by a good 30 standard points (most catches, most yards, 13 TDs).
Basically, they were batting .500 on those picks. It got really crazy once you look at 11-20:
Andre Johnson
Vincent Jackson
Larry Fitzgerald
Pierre Garcon
Keenan Allen
Victor Cruz
Roddy White
DeSean Jackson
Percy Harvin
Michael Crabtree
Here are my notes about where they actually finished:
42, T35, 55, 54, 48, 95, T24, T16, T61, T50
How do you miss projections THAT BADLY?!!! We're talking about 70% of those guys not even cracking the top 40? DeSean Jackson was pretty close to accurate (projected: 18, finished: T16). If you looked at his stats, though, he was a huge "boom or bust" guy, with about a 50/50 chance to score 10+ points per week.
Here's another quirky thing. After seeing where these players finished last season, did ESPN take that into account for this year's ratings? I'm not so sure:
Andre Johnson (23 this year)
Vincent Jackson (19 this year)
Larry Fitzgerald (37 this year)
Pierre Garcon (44 this year)
Keenan Allen (16 this year)
Victor Cruz (50 this year)
Roddy White (33 this year)
DeSean Jackson (17 this year)
Percy Harvin (below the top 50)
Michael Crabtree (below the top 50)
I mean, didn't loudmouth Richard Sherman tell the world what he thinks of Crabtree? Roddy White seems like he got disrespected if you ask me. They're projecting him 9 spots below his 2014 finish.
I could probably go through the whole ESPN list, but that could get tedious. The point is that I obviously DON'T take their word on the ranks past the top 10 or 15.
This ended up being my team (bye week following the names):
Matt Ryan 10
Eli Manning 11
Matt Forte 7
Justin Forsett 9
Jonathan Stewart 5
Tre Mason 5?
Dez Bryant 6
Alshon Jeffery 7
Torrey Smith 10
Marques Colston 11
Dwayne Allen 10
Heath Miller 11
Texans D/ST 9
Eagles D/ST ?
Justin Tucker 9?
Nick Folk 5?
A lot of first round picks were going QB for us, which isn't all that unusual. I only view the league as having MAYBE three "elites" left: Rodgers, Luck, Peyton. Brees lost a bunch of offense with Jimmy Graham leaving. Rodgers could struggle without Jordy Nelson. Then again, he made Greg Jennings and James Jones look like stars. Russell Wilson is undraftable for me, because his team is sort of a New Age religious cult (mandatory yoga, "mindfulness" training).
I've had Matt Ryan every year so far, and he might be boring, but that makes him the steady kind of guy who isn't going to lose many weeks for you.
Eli gets maligned somehow, because he tends to throw picks. That was before they changed to a "West Coast" offense, though. He had more than double the number of TDs to INTs last season.
Matt Forte has kind of slipped under my radar, possibly because he doesn't score a lot of rushing TDs. What I do see is that he averages 23 touches per game, with around 5 yards of gain whenever he has the ball. His age is the only question this year.
I didn't realize how Justin Forsett is playing for an offensive coordinator who coached Matt Forte last year. Forte set a record with 102 catches from the RB spot. I don't know if Forsett is that kind of player, but it could keep him from wearing down as a runner. Also, I knew that the Ravens scored the 5th most rushing TDs last year (tied actually; a good compliment for the guy with the huge amount of total yards).
Jonathan Stewart was kind of iffy. I know he can run 50 yards per game, but the TDs aren't really there.
Tre Mason was a late pick, and I think the highest ranked guy left. He should get to play the early part of the season, since Gurley is still injured.
Dez Bryant was a tough call. I'm not a Cowboys fan. He's never really offended me, other than how he seems too angry and starts fights in practice. Demaryius Thomas was on the board at that spot, BUT he's on a bye the same week as Forte. Would I want to sit TWO "studs" at RB and WR in the same week? No. Demaryius only finished 2 standard points ahead of Dez last season, and I'd only have to face him head to head maybe twice (not counting playoffs), so it didn't seem like a huge risk.
Alshon Jeffery - I'm not sure how he finished last season being OVERrated, compared to the projection. Brandon Marshall was also way too high. My thinking is that he was a beast to end last season, Marshall went to the Jets, and Jay Cutler is known for adding "meaningless" yards to stats by his offense in games where they're losing by at least two TDs.
Torrey Smith is interesting, because I'd put him in the top 20 based on TD ratio alone. You know he might only catch 55 to 60 balls, but he'll average 16 yards on each catch. He did change teams, so that's the biggest risk. The 49ers CAN chuck the ball deep. It just hasn't been proven yet in a regular season game.
Marques Colston was sort of disrespected, too. Brandin Cooks is about 19 ranks ahead of him. What has Brandin Cooks ever done in this league? As long as Colston is there, I wouldn't expect him to drop below 850 to 900 yards.
For Dwayne Allen, I hope I don't regret it. After I looked at his stats, he mostly seems to score TDs, while carrying an injury risk. My guy Greg Olsen was already gone, though, and Martellus Bennett would've given me a bunch of Bears with the same bye week.
The Texans defense really impresses me. Somehow, their yards against was just kind of bleh in 2014 (16th in the league), but they can sack QBs, they can turn you over, they had 6 defensive or special team scores, and not even the Colts could score more than 33 points against them ... My cousin was giving me nonsense about how the Bills are so much better. Are you kidding? They signed an idiot who broke his quarterback's jaw with a punch. How stable do you think that team's going to be with Rex Ryan in charge?
Justin Tucker is pretty much "My Boy," despite how he took some steps back last season. It looks like he attempted less than half of his usual 40 yard FGs, and he was losing points from the 50 yard range. His PATs improved, though, so he still finished near the top 10. It's not really like a kicker can lose a week for you (at least I haven't blamed a kicker for most of my losses).
So, a lot of commentary, eh? Maybe a little TL;DR? I just get so deep into these stats, and now it's finally over, besides the lineup decisions. I feel pretty good at RB1, RB2, WR1, AND WR2. Tight end shouldn't be as confusing, since you probably favor the 8 TD guy to the 3 TD guy. The quarterbacks and the defenses seem to have the most similar stats, assuming they perform the same as in 2014.
Of course, I'll have to see what happens when we finally start playing the games. I'm not feeling confident AT ALL on who could win a majority of the week 1 games. Giants vs Cowboys? Cowboys, because they're at home? I seem to remember them coming into East Rutherford last season and pulling off a comeback where Tony Romo had all day to throw on the final drive. Chiefs vs Texans? I see the Chiefs as a borderline playoff squad, but are they on the road? Are the Texans going to be any good with Alfred Blue, DeAndre Hopkins, and [unknown QB]?
Guess I need to get back to more research!
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