http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/detail/what-if-the-shah-of-iran-had-remained-35-years-later
My response:
This is a not impossible, but extraordinarily rosy counter-factual scenario. First of all, the author's premise is that it was the pressure from the Carter administration which caused the Revolution. While he and his administration undoubtedly handled the whole situation badly, that is letting the Shah and his regime off the hook for being the main culprits.
The author also doesn't take into account the basic fact that at the time of the Revolution, the Shah was already (albeit secretly) dying of cancer.
That actually might have led to a positive outcome for Iran and the world at large, if the mother of the new Shah Reza II, Queen Mother Farah, and the clique surrounding her, had won the subsequent power struggle, as she was the most liberal member of the regime. She then might have been able to steer the young king toward a more liberal democratic regime by, for example, following the constitution Iran already had, fighting corruption and reducing the power of SAVAK. That's still a lot of big IFs, though.
191
Message Thread
« Back to index